The Mothership Fails

There are failures.  And, then, there are embarrassing failures.  And, the Cobra Mothership was nothing more than one of the most complete and utter disasters the Joe world has seen.  Even the failed DTC experiment had an initial modicum of success.  The failure of the Super7 Cobra Mothership, though, is so thorough that it's tough to take away any useful lessons.

I was an advocate for the Mothership.  I wanted it to succeed because cool toys need to be made.  I was clear that it wasn't a toy for me just due to the sheer size.  But, up until  the end, I was optimistic that the ship would fund.  It needed about 2500 backers on the final day.  This isn't an insurmountable number.  And, Haslabs often have 5,000 or more backers on the final day of funding as they blow through tiers.  Kickstarters are notorious for seeing a surge of last minute pledges.  It's a fundamental truth in the crowdfunding world.

But, with the Mothership, there was no final day surge.  Sure, the numbers went up a bit.  But, not even 100 people backed it in the final day.  That is unprecedented.  And, it is that lack of last minute interest that bears the most scrutiny.  In the end, 1598 people out of a necessary 4000 backed the project.  That is an astoundingly bad showing for a product whose community regularly generates 15,000 or more backers for Haslabs.

Throughout the campaign, I was surprised by Super7's lack of advertising of the product.  It was only near the end of the timeline that they started reaching out to toy influencers on YouTube to hype the toy.  And, even then, their presentations were tepid.  While it's likely that Super7 could not create any advertising showcasing vintage Joes in the Mothership, there was no reason why an online personality couldn't have done so in one of their videos.  It would have been a nice visual.  And, would have gotten some play in the vintage Joe discussion groups.

Speaking of those groups, though, Super7 never even attempted to use them.  Facebook is full of Joe groups with 10,000 or more members.  Why didn't Super7 do a quick Q&A livestream with one of the  admins of these groups?  It would have been free and a way to instantly reach most of the still active Joe fans who exist.  And, things like that are FREE!  Which, for a project that only sought $2,000,000,  was probably an essential component.

To me, the complete lack of fanfare over the toy was the single reason for it's failure.  Items like the Skystriker, Hiss Tank and Dragonfly generated discussion in the Joe community every single day of their campaigns.  The Mothership did not.  Part of this is that it wasn't a Hasbro product.  And, that means a lot as there are many collectors who view non-Hasbro product as non-official, even if it's fully licensed.  Part of that is that the Mothership was somewhat obscure and not a toy that had ever really generated a lot of speculative interest.  The Cobra helicopter?  Sure.  Collectors have wanted that for 30 years.  But, the Mothership never even appeared on the once common "wishlist" items that dominated online Joe discussion.

The final issue was price point.  I have no doubt that $500 was a necessary price to make this happen.  But, even Hasbro has shown that the sweet spot for crowdfunding is between $200 and $300.  At that level, the items don't seem like such a big ticket purchase.  But, they also make the item seem special.  I don't think that Super7 could have created a version of the Mothership that was viable within that optimal price range.  So, they took a huge chance on a more spectacular product.  And, it backfired on them.

So, what does this all mean?  Truly, I have no idea.  We are certain that 3 3/4" o-ring Joes are dead to Hasbro.  They have been farmed out to Super7.  I doubt the failure of this ship will alter those plans.  Super7 has had enough success with their 5POA line at retail to justify a solid attempt at o-rings.  And, figures always do better than vehicles in today's toy landscape.  I'm sure there's some hand-wringing at Super7 HQ today as its leaders wonder if they bet too much of their company's success on a single brand that, frankly, has a lot more failures under it's umbrella in the past 25 years than it does successes.

 

2023 Cobra Mothership Tracking - The Home Stretch

So, yeah, I've been offline for a couple of weeks.  Lots of stuff going on and it was simply easier to drop Joe from my life for a bit than it was to try and keep up.  So, I haven't updated the tracker since 11/23.  And, in the two weeks since then the Mothership...still hasn't moved.  Here's what updates I did track:

11/25/23 - 1443 + 0
11/26/23 - 1443 + 0
11/27/23 - 1446 + 3
11/28/23 - 1446 + 0
11/29/23 - 1446 + 0

And, on 12/8/23, the total number of backers is 1484, less than 40 in two weeks.  The bulk of that number was a small jump from the Super7 announcement that they will be bringing an o-ring line of Joes to production in late 2024...about the time this ship will be distributed.  (Assuming it funds.)  But, more on that later.

For now, we're three days shy of the deadline for the Mothership.  I still think we'll see a last day surge.  But, we should be seeing some folks back it this weekend.  So, now, I'm non-committal on the funding.  It probably won't fund at this point.  But, it still might.  I definitely want it to fund, even though I'm not backing it.  And, I'm going to HATE the terrible takes that will dominate the Joe world for a day or two if it fails.  (Hint, they'll all be completely wrong about why it failed and will be all based on myopic, pre-conceived notions rather than actual data.)  

As for the announcement of the o-ring line...I'm ambivalent.  I'm not going to collect it, per se.  In cases where it will supplement or augment my collection, I'll buy a couple.  I'll certainly pick up any I find on clearance as it's tough to find any o-ring figures for under $8.  But, I'm past the point of picking up a new line.  And, it's pretty obvious that the new line will be a homage to the vintage line rather than a continuation.  Even Hasbro has utterly failed to capture the essence of the vintage line's sculpting and design.  

I expect the Super7 line will look decent.  But, it will be different from the vintage Joes.  A Dr. Venom will be a nice supplement to my vintage Joes.  But, the first Cobra Commander is going to look out of place among 1983 Cobra Troopers.  So, I'll pick and choose.

When I look at the figures that Super7 has made for the ReAction line, there's several designs I'd have bought in o-ring format.  But, there's many great designs that simply don't have any resonance with my collection.  The Gamemaster figures are great.  But, I'd never buy them as I'm not a cartoon guy.  But, I'd buy a cartoon coloring of Flint in an instant.  

I do wonder how the line will do.  Hasbro proved there is no market for $25 o-ring figures among Joe fans.  That line crashed and burned faster than the Dungeons and Dragons line.  And, with different construction, I'm not sure they'll appeal to the standard ReAction figure fan.  You'll see people talking about lower production numbers for Super7.  But, the Pulse o-rings didn't have high production runs.  And, they still failed.  If the Super7 figs go to real retail, they might do better.  But, I still wonder if there's a long term market for any o-ring line.

I'll be interested to see what Super7 comes up with.  But, I'm not going whole hog on the line.  It's doubtful that the gear will be compatible.  And, the heads will stand out quite a bit.  That's doesn't mean, though, that I won't buy some, photograph them and write way too much about them.

We'll touch base again on Wednesday when we know the Mothership's final fate.

2023 Cobra Mothership - Weekly Tracking Week 6

I was on vacation this week and missed a couple of check-ins.  Not much change, yet.  We'll see how it goes over this weekend.  I expect the needle to move some.  But, even if it doesn't, I'm still not convinced that the item won't fund.  Here's the numbers for this week:

11/18/23 - 1438 + 0
11/19/23 - 1438 + 0
11/20/23 - 
11/21/23 - 1441 + 3
11/22/23 - 
11/23/23 - 1443 + 2

11/24/23 - 1443 + 0

5 new backers this week.  Not much moving of the needle.  But, starting next week, pretty much everyone will be within their same credit card statement for the end of the campaign.  So, buying it then vs. buying it the last day won't really matter much.  We'll see if people get interested.

The upside is that, this week, Super7 clearly communicated that the Mothership was compatible with vintage o-ring figures.  They haven't shown pictures...likely because they can't.  But, this is why a quick collaboration with any toy influencer out there would be ideal. That person could show vintage Joes in  the ship and allow the photos/video to circulate online.  So, there's more that could be done.  

2023 Cobra Mothership - Weekly Tracking Week 5

This week, Super7 did some promotion for the Mothership.  Their Twitter account starting posting some new pics of the toy.  It showed just how big the ship actually is.  And, they showed off some of the interior of the ship.  They promoted the 5 figure army building packs.  And, they appeared on a podcast.  The result of all this effort was...little.  After gaining only 4 backers last week.  It gained 7 backers this week: three of those occurring on Friday afternoon.  Not a great return.  But, at least it was free promotion instead of paid shilling.

I missed a day this week.  Just got busy.  I expect the same to happen next week with the holiday.  But, with only 7 backers in a week, the daily totals become less important.  For now, the only real value in the tracking of the numbers is to see if the 10% in the first week and 90% in the last week comes true.  We'll see.

Here's the breakdown:

11/11/23 - 1431 + 0
11/12/23 - 1433 + 2
11/13/23 - 1433 + 0
11/14/23 - 
11/15/23 - 1435 + 2
11/16/23 - 1435 + 0
11/17/23 - 1438 + 3

Next week is Thanksgiving in the US. Typically, the Friday of that week is the biggest shopping day of the year and the day that people often commit to big gifts.  So, I don't expect the needle to move much next week since I'll post an update early on Friday.  But, the week after, that will cover Black Friday and Cyber Monday, should see an uptick from people who want to gift this item to themselves directly or by proxy.  And, we should be within the next credit card statement date for most people, meaning that ordering it over next weekend vs. waiting for December should still get the charges on the same statement.  After that, we'll have about 2 weeks left in the campaign.  I still expect a surge on the final day.  We'll see if it's enough to make this thing come to fruition.

2023 Cobra Mothership - Weekly Tracking Week 4

Last Friday, the Cobra Mothership was coming off of a terrible week in terms of the number of new backers.  Then, this week happened.  Here are the numbers:

11/04/23 - 1427 + 0
11/05/23 - 1427 + 0
11/06/23 - 1429 + 2
11/07/23 - 1429 + 0
11/08/23 - 1431 + 2
11/09/23 - 1431 + 0
11/10/23 - 1431 + 0

Ouch, again.  It's another rough, rough week for funding progress.  Not even a backer per day.  There's a month left in the funding window.  We're halfway through.  But, I don't think this is dead, yet.  Only 4 people backing this week is bad.  There are, though some things that could still be done to goose interest.  And I also think there's one big incentive that could lead to 2500 or more backers in the final 24-48 hours.

It's surprising me, though, that Super7 isn't doing much to promote this item.  While I get that $2,000,000 probably doesn't leave a huge budget for marketing, I do wonder why low cost and free options aren't being utilized.  Super7 could easily do a livestream in one of the large Joe Facebook groups where they show off all the features of the ship in close detail.  This would only cost a bit of time and get a large audience of potential customers.  The video could end up on Youtube for posterity.  None of the big social media G.I. Joe accounts have had anything to say about this ship.  And, even some of the big toy accounts on Twitter and Youtube that have 10's of thousands of followers have done nothing since the day this was announced.  I'd argue that the most recent Black Major figures have gotten more reach than the Mothership has.  That seems like a big failure to me.

The one reason while I'm still hopeful lies in the purchasing error that Super7 made.  If you back a Haslab, your credit card isn't charged until the project close date and then, it's charged only if the item funds.  With Super7, if you back it today, you pay today.  (Thanks to Josh Z for pointing this out.)  Then, if it doesn't fund, you get a refund.  This is a bad model.  I suppose it will cut down on declined charges on the day of funding.  But, that seems a small problem.  Especially when compared to forcing people to pay now for an item that may not even fund.  Because of this, though, I do expect we'll see a huge surge in final day backing.  And, that's why I'm still optimistic this funds...even with the numbers right now indicating (screaming, really!) otherwise.

2023 Cobra Mothership - Weekly Tracking Week 3

So, it doesn't look like the complete lack of support for this project last week was an anomaly.  I was really hoping it was.  But, when the counter started moving again, there wasn't a jump.  So, the pace hasn't just slowed down, it's pretty much stopped.

Conversely, Hasbro launched a Ghostbusters Haslab on 10/27.  It was over 80% backed in about 24 hours.  Within a couple of days, the full 10,000 backing number was reached.  The lesson here?  Fanbases will come out in force for products they feel are well worth the money.  This indicates that Joe fans, overwhelmingly, felt the Classified Dragonfly and Hiss were well worth the money and worth backing right away.  The Mothership doesn't fit that sweet spot.  Too many people can look at it and don't feel the overwhelming desire to instantly support it.  

Personally, I feel the sweet spot for crowdfunding projects is right around $300.  Much less, and the product will seem too much like it could have been a retail release.  Much more, though, and you cross a price threshold where the item has to be epic in order to justify the price point.  I'll argue the Mothership is epic.  It's just not iconic.  There's never been a groundswell of fan voices calling for it.  So, that's why it's not funding with the velocity you see in some other projects.

Here's the numbers:

10/28/23 - 1414 + 3
10/29/23 - 1414 + 0
10/30/23 - 1424 + 10
10/31/23 - 1425 + 1
11/01/23 - 1426 + 1
11/02/23 - 1427 + 1
11/03/23 - 1427 + 0

They are dismal.  This thing has slowed down and is not moving.  I do think this will still fund.  I'm less sure than I was last week.  But, I think nothing short of a new Joe Haslab that runs a funding window at the same time as the Mothership will be required to tank this.  The overall number of backers required to reach the funding goal is low.  But, as more and more weeks pass by without any significant backing, the chances of this failing does increase.

2023 Cobra Mothership - Weekly Tracking Week 2

As we enter week 2 of the Cobra Mothership funding, there's good news and bad news.  The bad news is that the early backing kit was not met.  So, the vinyl parachutes are not going to be included should this ship fund.  It's not really a loss.  Parachutes are a lot neater idea than they are actual toys.  But, it does lower the overall value of the package.

The good news is that the numbers are still climbing.  While the surge from the Super7 advertising bliltz of mid week from last week has abated, we're still seeing solid daily numbers.  Here's the count in the last week:

10/21/23 - 1250 + 70
10/22/23 - 1342 + 92
10/23/23 - 1411 + 69
10/24/23 - 1411 + 0
10/25/23 - 1411 + 0
10/26/23 - 1411 + 0
10/27/23 - 1411 + 0

You'll note the totals not moving for several days.  I doubt this is actually the case.  The web tracker doesn't seem to have a real time interface.  So, either someone's out on vacation or someone forgot to update the site with the numbers for a few days.  Either way, it's a bit disconcerting that a company tasked with making an item of this scale struggles to keep their customers updated on the likelihood that the project will fund.  If I'm going to give you a $600 loan for a year, I need to be confident that you are capable of delivering on your promises.  Simple miscues like not updating a website give me pause that a critical production question could be answered on time if missing even a single person has such an impact on your organization.  But, this is a company who misspells the word collectibles in their online advertising video: despite spelling it correctly in a different part of the same ad!

Right now, the Mothership is 35% funded.  I still think it's pretty much a done deal that this gets funded.  The recent Haslab Giant Man project got around 50% of it's backing in the final day.  And, was backing at more than one per minute in the final hours of the campaign.  Because of this, though, it also ended just a few units shy of the next funding tier.  You do wonder if enough people would have added another order onto theirs had they known they were so close to getting more toys for their money.

I doubt the Mothership will see such a surge.  But, it will get a surge.  And, the confirmation of funding isn't likely to occur until the final day.  But, with a low target number, maybe that won't be the case.  Regardless, you've got 6 weeks left to save up if you want to buy this thing.  

2023 Cobra Mothership - Weekly Tracking

I didn't do this with the Haslab Skystriker and I really wish I had.  I'm going to track the weekly progress of the backing numbers for the Cobra Mothership.  Frankly, this thing has stumbled out of the gate.  While I had no notions that it would get to close to funding in  the first few days like the last Classified Haslabs have, I also didn't think it would take days and days to even break 300 total backers.  But, there's been a mid week surge that's put this thing back on track.

For Haslabs (and Kickstarters, too) there is a set expectation where an item will get a decent amount of backers in the initial days.  Then, those numbers start to drop off.  Until then end.  Then, in the last couple of days, especially the last day, the numbers spike.  I'll be curious to see if the Super7 model follows that established pattern.  I do expect a bit of a upturn in the final two days of the early backing.  The parachutes aren't really all that much of an incentive.  But, you might as well back it early if you already know you're going to buy it and get them.

So, the numbers through the 1st week of availability: 1180 backers.  At over 25% funded, this thing looks like it's going to be a go.  The total should increase through the end of the early bird period before trailing off a bit again.  Then, it will flatten out until we get to the end when we'll see another spike.

Here are the daily totals.  I took these in the morning each day.  The time wasn't consistent.  But, any significant changes that occur after I record the numbers will be reflected the next day. (The tracker also appears to update in batches instead of real time, too.)  I didn't start until 10/14/23.  So, the first two days' worth of data aren't available.  You'll note a change indicator after the total for each day, too.

10/14/23 - 244

10/15/23 - 272 + 28

10/16/23 - 287 + 15

10/17/23 - 302 + 15

10/18/23 - 623 + 321

10/19/23 - 771 + 148

10/20/23 - 1180 + 409

There was a steady, but small daily increase in the numbers.  Then, between Tuesday and Wednesday, something happened and the backing exploded.  It doubled in one day.  Then, it added another 148 the following day.  Then, over 400 more on Thursday and Friday.  I have no idea why the weird explosion.  And, for it to occur on a random Tuesday and Wednesday makes no logical sense.  But, I've started seeing Youtube ads for Super7.  So, their advertising might have paid off.

At 4,000 units required for this ship to happen, the backing number is low.  It needs to average about 67 units per day to reach funding.  As of today, it's averaging 131 per day: well over the rate that's needed.  The slow start on the first days was worrisome.  But, now, the ship is back on a more normal crowdfunding pattern.  There's still a long way to go to get to 4,000.  But, it's pretty likely with where the numbers sit today.

2023 Super7 Cobra Mothership

So, it's finally happened.  After some teasing, Super7 showcased a real flagship toy for 3 3/4 G.I. Joe figures: the Cobra Mothership.  You can pre-order it here.

The toy is from the cartoon and fits with the Super7 strategy of mining cartoon designs for their toy offerings.  It is $495 plus shipping.  That's a lot.  But, this thing does look amazing.

Really, it's the type of toy that Joe collectors have pretended they want since 2001.  Now, we finally have one.  We'll see if people are really willing to spend $600 after shipping to support a toy like this.  It's got a lot of play value.  It's designed to be a display piece for collectors.  And, it holds tons of figures in various spaces so you can set up displays to your heart's content.  It's a dream for Joe photographers.  

For me, though, it's probably a no.  It's not because I don't think the toy is worth it.  From appearances in various photos from the NYCC, it appears to be in line with pricing for a toy of this intricacy and size.  But, it's the size that gets me.  The ship is 32 inches wide.  So, it's massive.  And, I just don't have space for something that size.  I do love that you can open it up and display tons of figures on the inside.  That is a big plus for me.  But, I'm at a point where I'm not sure I want another massive display toy.  And, I'm not dropping $600 to keep this thing in a box in a closet.  In a smaller scale, this toy would suck.  So, it needs to be big.  

The real news is that there is a 5 figure Viper set that's available as an add on.  Actually, there are 2 of them.  One is the standard ReAction style.  But, the other is an o-ring set.  What does this mean?  Really, I'm not sure.  Will Super7 do more o-rings?  I hope we'll find out as the weekend progresses.  

For now, though, speculate away.  Complain about the price.  Rage about how Super7 isn't your preferred vendor.  Pontificate about the scourge of crowdsourcing.  The bottom line is that 3 3/4 Joe fans now have another opportunity to show whether or not they're a large enough group to support a crowdfunded toy.  I hope this thing gets made.  Just because good toys should be supported.  It's just not something that's really in my wheelhouse of collecting any longer.